Archive for September, 2009



Resource Wealth and the Ethics of Global Investment

Ashby Monk

Gordon and I have just finished another research paper. This one focuses on the legitimacy and governance of Norway’s SWF. You can download it from our Resources section or directly from SSRN. We hope you find it interesting.

Abstract: The Norwegian Government Pension Fund-Global is one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds and is one of the most transparent institutions of its type. It also has an explicit mission aimed at integrating long-term investment return objectives with a two-sided ethical commitment: to corporate engagement according to accepted principles of best-practice corporate governance and to ensuring that the fund is not associated with companies that pose a risk to social and environmental justice. As such, the Norwegian fund has an ethical mandate—a remarkable fact when compared to other sovereign wealth funds. In this paper, we argue that this mission is best understood in terms of procedural rather than substantive justice. The contrast drawn is between a function-based conception of the design and implementation of the investment process and an outcomes-based or substantive conception of the proper purpose of investment. This argument is developed with reference to recent work on the nature of state authority and legitimacy in democratic societies, the logic of best-practice investment management, and the functional integration of decision-making. To illustrate, the paper focuses on the nature and significance of the recommendations from the advisory Council of Ethics and the exercise of powers related to corporate governance. Implications are drawn for understanding the limits of sovereign wealth funds seeking to give global effect to national sentiments.

Transparency Necessitates Communication

Ashby Monk

Formerly secretive SWFs may be winning over international audiences with increased transparency, but they are losing domestic support from the revelation of poor investment returns. Some have taken to calling this phenomenon the “Santiago Blues” in reference to the Santiago Principles, which created all sorts of new standards for disclosure. As large losses are reported (which happened quite a bit in 2008), the domestic legitimacy of these funds is in question.

What’s the result? Apparently, these SWFs are shortening their time-horizons so as to ensure short-term gains that will please domestic constituencies (and bolster legitimacy). Indeed, according to Reuters:

“SWFs have sharply reduced their headline activities and come under pressure to invest in instruments or projects that will give visible and accountable returns, rather than in something which will hopefully yield something in a loosely defined, somewhat “long,” investment horizon.”

This fits with the discussions I have had with transparent SWFs the past. However, I still find this type of response to domestic pressure regrettable. In my view, a SWF that invests exclusively for short-term gain is institutionally incoherent. These funds are supposed to be intergenerational!

That SWFs are in fact shrinking their time horizon to obtain domestic legitimacy is a failure of communication. There simply needs to be a coherent dialogue between governments and their citizens about roles and mandates (and this probably should have happened from the moment the SWF was set up).

Transparency isn’t the problem here. As a frequent commentator to this site has noted, “There is no general reason why secrecy should produce better returns.” If SWFs are having trouble at home, it is because they have not successfully communicated with the general public to obtain buy-in; shielded by a veil of secrecy, they were afforded the luxury of ignoring domestic opinion.

So, as I said in a recent post:

“…I don’t view the increasing levels of transparency as a threat to legitimacy. I take the opposite view; transparency may solidify the legitimacy of SWFs over the long term, albeit it with some short- and medium-term costs (that are worth paying).”

I still believe that.

Mongolia’s Bright Idea

Ashby Monk

Despite the financial crisis and some setbacks for certain SWFs, 2009 remains a banner year. In a previous post, I managed to list off eight new SWFs that are being (or have already been) created in 2009 alone. Let’s add Mongolia to this list.

Mongolia’s Finance Minister Sangajav Bayartsogt said on Friday that the government would set up a SWF derived from Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold mine revenues. Over a 50 year time horizon, the expectation is that this fund could reach $30 billion.

The idea would be to diversify the economy and provide annual income to every Mongolian (once the fund comes on line in 2013). Indeed, by siphoning off these revenues, the government is hoping to avoid Dutch disease and alleviate poverty. The Mongolians are looking specifically at the Alaska Permanent Fund for inspiration, which pays qualified Alaskan citizens a yearly dividend.

I’m intrigued; a developing country has apparently decided to set up a SWF so as facilitate the return of national wealth to its citizens rather than keep it from them. Time will tell if the governance procedures are set up appropriately, but the concept is compelling.

Weekend Reading: Reserve Currencies

Ashby Monk

In a recent article for the IMF’s Finance & Development, Benjamin Cohen asks a simple question: “For nearly a century, the U.S. dollar has reigned supreme, but are those days over?” His answer is quite interesting.

Global Real Estate

Ashby Monk

SWFs are increasingly looking to the global real estate market for investment opportunities:

  • This morning New Zealand’s Superannuation Fund announced its intention to move more of its assets into property with the hiring of Franklin Templeton.
  • Yesterday we learned that the CIC is looking to “pile cash into US real estate.” The WSJ also reminds us of the CIC’s recent investments in an Australian real estate trust (Goodman Group), in Canary Wharf Group, and in Morgan Stanley’s global property fund ($800 million). The CIC is also looking for infrastructure deals in India, Mongolia and Pakistan.
  • Qatar’s various investment vehicles are also investing in property; it was Qatar Holding that joined the CIC in the Canary investment.
  • It was also reported in August that Libya’s SWF was set to “pour millions of pounds into the London property market.”

You get the picture. I have three thoughts on this new trend.

First, these assets really make sense for SWFs. They are generally stable and offer cash flows and capital appreciation over very long-term time horizons. As such, they match up well with SWFs’ long term view; who better to invest in timber-land or toll roads that might not pay off for 10-20 years?

Second, these investments are a bit tougher to value (e.g. compared to stocks and bonds). So they may give SWFs some domestic cover during the ups and downs in the market. Some of these funds have seen the domestic trouble that big losses in volatile and easy to value assets can cause.

Finally, investing in property will undoubtedly raise some political worries in the investment receiving countries. SWFs will need to learn from Japan’s mistakes in the 1980s. That said, perhaps this new wave of real estate investments reflects a more welcoming environment for SWF investments? Time will tell…

Huijin and Jianyin Bolster CIC

Ashby Monk

Michael McCormack of Z-Ben just sent me his analysis of the CIC’s remarkable performance in 2008. In the article, McCormack notes (as we did) that:

“The 6.8% overall gain…is attributable to the success of CIC’s domestic subsidiaries, Central Huijin and China Jianyin, which combined to produce the single largest line item in the income statement, “income from long-term equity investments” of USD26.3bn.”

Remarkably, the above figure may actually understate things:

“USD26.3bn is likely a conservative underestimate of the subsidiaries’ contribution to CIC’s real financial strength; Huijin and Jianyin are likely to be the sources of some of the most attractive securities company and asset management partnership opportunities of the next five years; overseas securities and asset managers hoping to be those partners likely need to make themselves known to Huijin and Jianyin now, even though the date of any eventual transaction may be distant.”

As readers are likely aware, both Huijin and Jianyin were given to the CIC as part of its initial endowment. The two firms were initially tasked with reforming or reorganizing China’s financial services firms. The reorganizations have gone extremely well:

“As they emerge from restructuring, the quality of Huijin and Jianyin’s holdings is, with few exceptions, high.”

Significantly, the outperformance of these domestic oriented funds has important implications for the CIC:

“First, it can expect further income gains from its subsidiaries over the next five years (larger ones as the disposal / IPO schedule accelerates). Second, it will receive additional cash that can be invested abroad. We suspect that as much as a third of that USD26.3bn taken as income is now waiting to be invested by CIC, with the rest tied up in Huijin and Jianyin’s subsidiary firms or waiting to be injected there. Third, the continuing availability of this income cushion will make CIC more willing to take risks abroad.”

These are all interesting implications. Thanks to Michael McCormack for sharing his analysis.

Motoring Mubadala

Ashby Monk

According to an investor presentation released by Mubadala this week, the Abu Dhabi-based “business development and investment company” saw its assets under management increase dramatically between 2006 and 2009. The SWF checked in at $4.9 billion in 2006, $10.7 billion in 2007, $14.8 billion in 2008, and was most recently listed at $21.6 billion. Over the 3.5 year period, Mubadala reports a compound annual growth rate over 80%!

What is going on here? I was under the impression that all investment funds lost money over this period. Even the CIC, which sat out 2008, lost roughly 2%. One explanation is that the SWF revalued its holdings of oil and stocks, which drove the enormous increase in income (up 450%). So perhaps it isn’t quite as impressive as we think. However, it is apparent that the SWF has done quite well in diversifying Abu Dhabi’s economy (for more details see the 2008 annual report).

When I have a bit more time, I’m going to listen to the open conference call…which is something I didn’t expect to write about any Middle Eastern SWF even a year ago. It is remarkable how transparent and open Mubadala has become.

Long Weekend Reading

Ashby Monk

I’m off for a few days (till Tuesday). Before I go, here are two papers I just came across:

Mathew J. Burrows and Jennifer Harris consider the role for SWFs in 2025 in their paper in the Washington Quarterly entitled, “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Financial Crisis.” In their view, SWFs represent the collapse of “…firewalls between state and markets…” I enjoyed seeing SWFs situated in a broader discussion of geopolitics.

Bernd Scherer has a new paper in Financial Markets and Portfolio Management entitled, “A note on portfolio choice for sovereign wealth funds.” If you prefer chatty papers, maybe give it a pass; it’s pretty technical.

Be back Tuesday.

Whole lotta shaking going on…

Ashby Monk

The entire planet is apparently shaking. The FT reported yesterday that the US financial system is about to suffer a shake up. The Washington Post notes the big shake up in Japan after Sunday’s national election. Shake ups are even happening today in Korea and Nigeria. Even the shaky are being “shaken up.” Apparently, the shaking has also hit some of the biggest SWFs in the world: the WSJ reports today that Norway’s SWF is being shaken up, and the FT reports that Singapore’s GIC is being shaken up. What’s going on?

My guess is that the economic volatility over the past few years has led to some profound changes to the global economic architecture, which the media has all agreed to refer to as a “shake up.” (I’m just a humble blogger without any real journalism credentials, but I think the term “shake up” needs its own shake up — see Tom Ricks’ article Bring the Pane for an interesting take on a similar phenomenon.) In the aftermath of the crisis, we are going to see economies and actors change, restructure, augment, alter, replace, amend, streamline and reshuffle institutional structures and governance practices.

With respect to the SWFs, the crisis has offered these funds an opportunity to examine internal practices and make appropriate changes. This has already happened in Alaska, China, Korea, Qatar, Temasek and many more. In the end, these changes will hopefully result in SWFs stopping bad practices and implementing good practices. Conceptually, I think it’s interesting to think that market forces are driving these government institutions to think about how to streamline and improve operations; a sort of internal creative destruction for public sector actors. In this case, however, the Schumpeterian entrepreneurs are injected into the SWFs (as just happened in Norway and Singapore) rather than challenging them from the outside…

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This website is a project of Professor Gordon L. Clark and Dr. Ashby Monk of the School of Geography and the Environment at the University of Oxford. Their research on sovereign wealth funds is funded by the Leverhulme Trust and The Rotman International Centre for Pension Management.

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