Archive for November, 2009



Weekend Reading

Ashby Monk

My ‘Recasting the SWF Debate’ paper has just been published in New Political Economy. It may seem like years since I wrote it, but that’s the academic game. Actually, I’d say NPE was timely when compared to some other journals I’ve published in. Anyway, if you don’t have subscription to NPE (through a university or library), you can get the working paper here.

Additionally, I came across this paper by Torfinn Harding and Rick Van der Ploeg entitled, “Is Norway’s Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations.” It looks interesting.

Have a nice weekend.

Investing China’s Pensions

Ashby Monk

A former colleague of ours, Yu-Wei Hu, has just co-authored an interesting paper with Gregorio Impavido and Xiaohong Li on the governance and investment management of China’s pensions. It’s an interesting read that draws plenty of comparisons to international pensions and SWFs.

As the authors note,

“The Chinese pension system is highly fragmented and decentralized, with governance standards, pension fund management practices, their regulation and supervision varying considerably both across the funded components of the Chinese pension system and across provinces.”

In short, the paper describes the system and highlights progress and weaknesses. I learned a lot.

…Make it 11 New SWFs for 2009

Ashby Monk

Earlier this week, I remarked with some interest that Angola was gearing up to have their SWF up and running this year. I also noted that this brought the total number of new SWFs in (or around) 2009 to 10. Well, make it 11.

Papua New Guinea announced today that it is thinking about establishing an SWF so as to manage the revenues it is expecting from a large liquefied natural gas project. Apparently, the government is expecting something in the range of $50 billion. Rod Mitchell, Managing director of one of PNG’s biggest superannuation funds, had this to say:

“The benefits from a sovereign fund, particularly in PNG’s case is that we are going to have very large revenues coming into PNG over the next 30 years and we simply don’t have the capacity in country to actually absorb those revenues. “

Indeed, this SWF will be important for the country in avoiding Dutch Disease. Encouragingly, all the stakeholders seem to agree that good institutional governance is worth the investment. In fact, PNG ministers were reportedly in Australia last month, where they received a commitment of assistance in setting up the legislative framework that would underpin the new SWF.

CIC’s Billions

Ashby Monk

I had an interesting email from Michael McCormack at Z-Ben today. He suggested that we may see the CIC receive an additional injection of up to $200 billion before the close of 2009 (i.e. in the next 6 weeks). This would bring the fund up to $500 billion! In McCormack’s words,

“CIC would like to close its 2009 book ready to accept the transfer of another USD200bn or more from foreign reserves. No-one doubts that CIC was designed to be an organization that manages sums far in excess of its current international portfolio of approximately USD110bn. It will not receive those additional funds, however, until it can show that it is fully invested and ready for more. In Z-Ben Advisors’ view, we may now be in the final weeks of CIC’s start-up phase, and the organization may in fact be gearing up for the receipt of yet another USD200bn+ of funding.”

The CIC will thus only receive the additional money if it can show that it has spent all the rest of its money, and it must do so in manner that shows good business sense. This is a plot line straight out of George Barr McCutcheon’s famous book Brewster’s Millions! If the CIC spends the money in time, they’ll got a whole lot more.

This perhaps explains the dramatic increase in CIC investments over the past few months. It’s all part of the new story of CIC’s Billions.

QIA Changes Strategy from ‘Do Nothing’ to ‘Do Something’

Ashby Monk

After deciding to pro-actively do nothing during the financial crisis, the Qatar Investment Authority is now clearly doing something. Indeed, as David Lepeska noted yesterday in The National, “…the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) has been conspicuously active of late.”

Founded by the State of Qatar in 2005 to strengthen the country’s economy by diversifying into new asset classes, QIA decided to withdraw and regroup during the financial crisis, which was a strategy adopted by many SWFs.

Today, it was announced that the QIA is planning to sell half of its preferred shares in VW, which will net the SWF roughly $2.4 billion. This sale comes on the heels of the SWF’s sale of Barclays, which netted the fund over $1 billion. Apparently, the idea is to raise some additional cash for other investments.

Whether or not the fund actually invests in Sainsbury’s or takes a stake in a UK bank, which have been rumored as of late, it is clear that this SWF views the crisis as subsiding and the markets as primed for investment. Indeed, The National article notes that “deals are in the works.”

That’s great. To paraphrase the late, great Billy Preston, ‘nothing from nothing leaves nothing’, so SWFs should at least be doing something.

Healthy Competition Update

Ashby Monk

I finally got around to updating the “healthy competition” page, which links to some of the more useful SWF resources I’ve found on the web. Feel free to email me with any additional recommendations.

 

Angola is Gearing Up

Ashby Monk

Ten: The number of new SWFs that countries have set up or are planning to set up in (or around) 2009. Following on from these eight and Mongolia, Angola is now gearing up to have its own SWF very soon:

“Angola’s government sees the $58 per barrel reference oil price in the 2010 budget as very prudent as prices should trade much higher next year, and will use the extra money for a wealth fund.”

Reuters had reported in June that Angola was considering a new SWF this year, but I had seen precious little since then. I guess the recent uptick in the price of oil has bolstered the third largest oil producer in Africa to press ahead with their new SWF.

 

Weekend Reading

Ashby Monk

Tao Sun and Heiko Hesse of the IMF have recently released a paper entitled, “Sovereign Wealth Funds and Financial Stability—An Event Study Analysis.”

The paper examines financial stability issues that arise from the increased presence of SWFs. Specifically, the authors assess whether and how stock markets react to the announcements of investments and divestments to firms by SWFs using an event study approach.

Spoiler: They show that there was no significant destabilizing effect of SWFs on equity markets.

Have a nice weekend.

SWFs Behave Differently

Ashby Monk

April M. Knill, Bong-Soo Lee and Nathan Mauck have a new paper up on SSRN entitled, “Bilateral Political Relations and the Impact of Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment: A Study of Causality.”

The authors find that political relations play a role in SWF decision-making:

“We find, counter to predictions based on the trade and political relations literature, that SWFs prefer to invest in nations with which they have relative weaker political relations. This indicates that SWFs behave differently than other economic agents.”

It’ll be interesting to see if the analysis stands up to peer review, as the above is rather provocative.

Opacity Threat to SWF Legitimacy

Ashby Monk

Adrian Orr, CEO of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, has an interesting interview on the SWF Institute website.

I think Orr’s comments on legitimacy are spot on:

“…the Global Financial Crisis is just the latest example of how perceived or actual opacity can damage the reputation of financial institutions. This in turn damages the perceived domestic and international legitimacy of these institutions, and ultimately their ability to operate…We believe that an important step toward establishing and then preserving legitimacy is for a financial institution to make it easy for its stakeholders to understand why it exists, what it does, and how.”

I couldn’t have said it better myself…and I’ve tried.

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This website is a project of Professor Gordon L. Clark and Dr. Ashby Monk of the School of Geography and the Environment at the University of Oxford. Their research on sovereign wealth funds is funded by the Leverhulme Trust and The Rotman International Centre for Pension Management.

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