Archive for January, 2010



Weekend Reading

Ashby Monk

Or, rather, I should say “Weekend Watching” since this week’s first installment is a video. I just saw an interesting interview with John Nugee on CNBC. In it Nugee says, “SWFs have an obligation to exercise control over management of their [portfolio] companies.” He also predicts that more and more SWFs will engage in “active management” in the coming year. It’s an interesting and provocative point!

Since it’s a long weekend in the US, I thought I would include this research paper by Kathryn L. Dewenter, Xi Han and Paul H. Malatesta. Entitled “Firm Values and Sovereign Wealth Fund Investments”, the authors analyze the impact of SWF investments on firm values. They show that SWFs have a significant impact on firm values; it’s worth a read.

Enjoy the weekend!

Russia’s Rough Patch

Ashby Monk

Russia’s SWFs have been going through a rough patch; facing both financial and political troubles as of late:

Financial: It was reported that the country’s two SWFs saw their combined assets drop by $15.9 billion in December; apparently the government still depends on these funds to fill spending gaps:

“The Reserve Fund fell to $60.5 billion from $75.1 billion at the end of December, while the National Welfare Fund decreased to $91.6 billion from $92.9 billion.”

It was also reported this week that the Reserve Fund saw its assets drop by $75 billion (!) in 2009. Ouch.

Political: And when times are tough, there is always the threat of politicized investing. According to the Moscow Times, money from the National Welfare Fund will be used to finance Vneshekonombank’s (VEB) infrastructure projects. This is an odd development, as the National Welfare Fund was created to prop up the pension system (not prop up state owned enterprises). Indeed, this would be the first time the NWF would be used in this manner.

While the Ministry sees this as a profitable investment, a former Finance Ministry official says that the motivation is not commercial:

“The decision to place a part of the National Welfare Fund money with VEB is undoubtedly political, which means VEB needs the money for something.”

Apparently, VEB has been complaining about a lack of resources for some time, and this is a way for the government to get capital to its cash starved firm. Indeed, one critic said simply that this was a direct way to support a state corporation at taxpayers’ expense.

Rough times for Russia’s SWFs…

The Determinants of SWFs

Ashby Monk

Why do countries set up SWFs? What are the local characteristics that are necessary preconditions for SWFs’ creation? I’ve thought a great deal about this topic. So I was intrigued to come across a paper by Bernhard Reinsberg from 2009 entitled, “Sovereign Wealth – No Fund: The Decisive Role of Veto Players.” In the paper, he explains how the political environment in India prevented the creation of a SWF despite the fact that the other necessary preconditions are met:

“First, [the paper] confirms conventional economic theory which shows the requirement of excessive foreign reserves for the set-up of SWFs. Second, it suggests that political systems matter, as demonstrated by the lively debate in India on whether that country should have such a fund. In this way, influential societal actors, in particular the central bank and regulating agencies as well as business associations, have dominated the public discourse and successfully lobbied the government to waive initial plans in support of an alternative wealth management scheme.”

Reinsberg seems to argue that democracy is inconsistent with the creation of SWFs; but his argument is more nuanced than that. He also focuses in on the role of ‘veto players’ in the ‘sovereign wealth – no-fund’ result.  It’s an interesting idea. Read it here.

More on ADIA’s Operations

Ashby Monk

I decided this morning to go back through the long version (11 pages) of the Sheikh Ahmed Bin Zayed Al Nehayan interview. I wanted to see if there was anything we could learn about ADIA’s operations that wasn’t already common knowledge. While I didn’t find anything earth shattering, I did get a better sense for how ADIA invests and compensates and how it interacts with its sponsor.

Investment strategy:

“We believe in ‘active beta,’ which involves using extensive research and analysis to develop a vision of where the world is heading over the coming 10 – 15 years and positioning ourselves appropriately to take advantage of those structural trends. This is an intense process involving more than two dozen asset types with fixed weights that reflect ADIA’s vision…around 60% of ADIA’s assets are invested in index-replicating strategies.”

Zayed also said that Real Estate and Private Equity are stand-alone asset classes separate from Alternatives, which are for the most part Hedge Funds.

Compensation:

“We believe in rewarding employees based on various factors that may include beating return targets but also their broader contribution to the organization as a whole. Our compensation program has always had a smaller variable component than many investment institutions but a greater emphasis on fixed pay and various other benefits. This keeps us competitive in attracting world class talent, but also encourages our employees to focus on what’s best for ADIA over the long-term rather than looking for ways to boost their short-term personal gains.”

In short, they aren’t paying out huge bonuses this year. They may be implementing a strategy similar to the Canada Pension Plan, which averages its bonus calculations out over four years. Still, I wonder if the above will attract and retain the best people. I’ve heard many ME SWFs already have trouble attracting top talent. Is this type of policy going to make it harder for ADIA?

Sponsor:

“…the Abu Dhabi government can, at any time, request funds from ADIA to meet its short-term needs, and this has happened a few times in our history. But how and for what purpose those funds are used is strictly a private matter for the government.”

Like all SWFs, ADIA is a self-insurance policy for the Abu Dhabi government. However, because of its lack of transparency, it is impossible to know how the government has used the fund. In my opinion, there is no reason to be this secretive. After all, ADIA still won’t say how much money they have or what their investment return has been over its history. Why? Nonetheless, the above is a good start in opening up.

ADIA Opens Up…A Bit

Ashby Monk

Sheikh Ahmed bin Zayed, managing director of ADIA, participated in a rare interview with the German newspaper Handelsblatt. Any time you get the MD of one of the world’s most secretive SWFs to talk to the public, people are going to pay close attention. And there were some interesting revelations.

For example, ADIA claims to have played the crisis perfectly, selling stocks in 2008 before reinvesting in 2009.  Zayed also indicated that he sees long-term investment potential in the West. Indeed, he disclosed that ADIA has 35-50% of its assets in the U.S., 25-35% in Europe, 15-25% in emerging markets and 10-20% in Asia. Still, he felt that the world economy was still in a fragile state and that new financial regulation was necessary.

It’s nice to get a bit more information from ADIA. Apparently, this interview is part of the SWF’s new commitment to revealing more information about itself; after all, it was a driving force behind the Santiago Principles.

UPDATE: You can get the whole English version of the interview here.

The End of Influence

Ashby Monk

Reihan Salam has a great review in Forbes of Cohen and Delong’s new book entitled, The End of Influence. I was particularly fascinated by the following sections:

“East Asian surpluses have also been poured into sovereign wealth funds. The end result has been that American consumers enjoy cheap manufactured goods while emerging East Asian economies have poor populations but a powerful hedge against currency crises. If these countries could rely on better global institutions to protect themselves against financial crises, they wouldn’t have to engage in this wasteful form of self-insurance.”

So true. Here’s another interesting nugget:

“We shouldn’t be surprised, however, if the sovereign wealth funds of other less-affluent, less-transparent and less-exemplary countries choose to advance the national interest through other means. Given that the money bottled up in China’s sovereign wealth funds is essentially extracted from its hard-working population, why shouldn’t the Chinese government use it to acquire American firms and transfer their technology and manufacturing facilities to China?”

Is this a justification for using SWFs to advance political agendas? I need to read this book…

Weekend Reading

Ashby Monk

Priti S. Rajagopalan and Sunil Rongala of Deloitte Research wrote a paper entitled, “Insurance Firms: The Missing Link in the Sovereign Wealth Fund Acquisition Spree.” It’s pretty interesting.

The authors note, ”As Middle Eastern and Asian governments seek to close the gap between the current state of their financial sectors and the sophistication of world-class financial sectors by gaining access to valuable resources and skills, it is likely that SWFs will seek to invest in insurance firms in the near future.”

An interesting prediction; we’ll see what happens. Enjoy your weekend.

(H/T Sovereign Funds Central)

Looking Beyond The Short-Term

Ashby Monk

I just came across a fascinating lecture by Nobel Laureate Robert C. Merton on the financial crisis and its implications for the science and practice of finance. In talking about potential US responses to the crisis, Merton suggests that the government establish a new American SWF to help manage systemic risks and the assets acquired as part of the bailout (p20).

Merton highlights a point that Gordon and I have been talking about (and writing about) since the crisis began: the recent experience of certain Western economies, in particular the UK and the USA, suggests that the lack of an effective national insurer of last resort has proven to be a real threat to economic prosperity. In these countries, nation-states became by default the insurers of last resort, offering-up their current and future tax revenue as the means of underwriting the stability of their financial systems.

It is instructive that two of our SWF case studies—Australia’s Future Fund and Singapore’s GIC—have seen their respective governments make deliberate choices about the mix between current consumption and future national welfare, managing the political process in each country so as to balance current temptations to spend against the need to ensure future sovereignty in times of crisis. In both the UK and the US, majority political parties were not able to look beyond short-term interests, especially over the first decade of the twenty-first century.

Our research suggests that all countries need institutions that can act as insurers of last resort and facilitate planning over the long-term. It appears that Merton agrees.

Tunisia Considering A New SWF

Ashby Monk

Governments’ interest in setting up SWFs has apparently held strong into 2010. According to Jamel Arfaoui of Magharebia, Tunisian lawmakers are now considering a new SWF to help with the country’s unemployment. Indeed, in the wake of the financial crisis, the unemployment level in Tunisia has apparently risen above 20 percent; an ‘unemployment fund’ is seen by many as a potentially innovative solution.

It seems to me that this is another case where governments may be asking too much of SWFs. This situation reminds me of Maldives President Nasheed’s idea to create a SWF to buy new land and move his country’s people should the Maldives end up totally submerged due to climate change.  Or Scotland’s idea to create a new SWF to facilitate independence from the UK.

Setting up a SWF to solve the problem of unemployment when unemployment is already rampant doesn’t really make sense. Why would the government set aside money to invest in financial markets over the long term when it could fruitfully spend the money today to alleviate the problem?

I tend to agree with Mohammed Ammar:

“An unemployment fund in a society where the majority of people are unemployed wouldn’t work for the time being, because it would raise questions over financial resources, which Tunisia lacks now.”

If you don’t have W, you can’t really have an SWF. Moreover, if you think a sovereign debt fund is a good idea, have a look at how that has played out for Dubai.

A New American SWF?

Ashby Monk

The latest government to consider setting up a SWF is…Oklahoma? That’s right. According to Tim Talley of the AP in Oklahoma City:

“Oklahoma House Speaker Chris Benge said Monday he is studying the need for an energy stabilization fund to mitigate the financial fallout from volatile oil and natural gas prices.”

The fund would be similar to other stabilization funds in that it would sequester excess revenue when prices were high so as to distribute it when prices are low. Due to falling tax receipts from the economic crisis and ‘low’ commodity prices, the state is facing a revenue shortfall of more than $729 million.

Remarkably, Oklahoma already has a $600 million “Rainy Day Fund” (who knew?) drawn from the general state revenues. So, this proposal would be for the state to create another fund, which would specifically target budget gaps. Policymakers view the Rainy Day Fund as being restricted for more serious incidents (i.e. natural disasters).

Apparently, we need to start counting Oklahoma among the U.S. states that sponsor SWFs, such as Alaska, Alabama, New Mexico and Wyoming. Indeed, if the above policy is implemented, Oklahoma will have two SWFs with separate sources of revenues and separate mandates.

SWFs are as popular in the Mid-West as they are in the Middle East!

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This website is a project of Professor Gordon L. Clark and Dr. Ashby Monk of the School of Geography and the Environment at the University of Oxford. Their research on sovereign wealth funds is funded by the Leverhulme Trust and The Rotman International Centre for Pension Management.

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